Turning Concern into Action: Understanding Climate Change Attitudes in Pakistan-What is sustainable future?

Abstract

Pakistan is grappling with the profound impacts of climate change, such as shifting weather patterns and catastrophic floods.¹ Unfortunately, these impacts are projected to escalate, with forecasts suggesting that climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution which may cause Pakistan's GDP to shrink by 18-20% by 2050. This alarming statistic underscores the need to address climate change and mitigate its effects on people and their livelihoods. Even though developing countries like Pakistan may not be the primary contributors to climate change, however acknowledging and confronting its fallout is indispensable and especially for combatting pressing local issues like air pollution and smog.²

Pakistan ranks among the top 10 countries worldwide most affected by climate change and natural disasters. During the past century, an annual mean temperature increase of around 0.63°C has been observed in the country, and sea level along the Karachi coast has risen by approximately 1.1mm per year. Though, during the period 2006-2015, the sea level reportedly rose at a rate of 3.6 mm per year. Pakistan's historical precipitation profile has been complex. The early 20th century was characterized by a prolonged decline in annual rainfall, but since 1960, a slight increasing trend has prevailed after that. However, this overall trend hides considerable sub-national variation. For instance, since 1960, mean rainfall in the arid plains of Pakistan and the coastal belt has decreased by 10%-15%, contributing to the ongoing degradation of the country's wetlands and mangrove ecosystems. But in 1970, the number of heavy rainfall events in the country has increased, as has the number of heatwave days per year in Pakistan which again decreased in next 04 decades but now again the cycles of heavy rains are seen.

By the end of the century, the annual mean temperature in Pakistan is expected to rise by approximately 3°C 6°C, depending on the emissions scenario. Sea level is expected to increase by 60 cm, most likely affecting the low-lying coastal areas south of Karachi toward Keti Bander and the Indus River delta and contributing to the salinization of soils and coastal erosion. Average annual rainfall is not expected to have a significant long-term trend but is expected to exhibit large inter-annual variability. Pakistan is also expected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, with severe impacts for the country's natural and human capital.

Pakistan's high vulnerability to climate change is well recognized. With increasing temperatures, Pakistan has already experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, cyclones, heavy rain spells, extremely high temperatures etc., which have been impacting the country's ecosystems, people, settlements, and infrastructure. Between 1992 and 2021, according to the World Bank Group, climate- and weather-related disasters in Pakistan resulted in a total of US$29.3 billion of economic losses (inflation-adjusted to 2021 US dollars) from damage to property, crops, and livestock, equivalent to 11.1% of 2020 GDP Significant events in Pakistan's history include persistent drought that prevailed in the southern part of the country during 1998-2002 and again in 2014 and 2015; an extreme heat wave in 2015, where over 65,000 people were hospitalized with heat stroke, and the 2010 catastrophic flood which affected one-fifth of the country and 20 million people, and claimed over 2,000 lives.

As the climate changes, the number of people affected by flooding in Pakistan is projected to increase, with a likely increase of around 5 million people who are exposed to extreme river floods by 2035-2044, and a potential increase of around 1 million annually exposed to coastal flooding by 2070-2100. The 2022 floods have shown Pakistan's high vulnerability to climate change. Between June and August 2022. Torrential rains and a combination of riverine, urban, and flash flooding led to an unprecedented disaster in the country. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), around 33 million people ie. one in seven, have been affected by the floods, including nearly 8 million people who were displaced. The floods have taken the lives of more than 1,700 people and one-third of which were children. According to the PDMA (Pakistan Disaster Management Authority) due to the 2022 floods, there were total damages which were estimated to exceed USD 14.9 billion, and total economic losses were expected to reach about USD 15.2 billion, and estimated needs for rehabilitation and reconstruction in a resilient way are at least USD 16.3 billion. As a direct impact of the floods, loss in gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to be around 2.2% of Fiscal Year 2022 GDP.³

Pakistan's agriculture sector is likely to be severely impacted by climate change, with projections suggesting yield declines in many key food and cash crops, including cotton, wheat, sugarcane, maize, and rice. The agriculture sector is projected to contract the almost, at 0.9% of GDP. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan year 2020-21, agriculture has a 19.2% share in the GDP and accounts for 60% of exports, while providing livelihood to about 68% of the country's population which is living in rural areas, and employing 45% of the national labor force. Climate change will impact the agriculture sector mainly through reduced crop productivity, adverse impact on livestock health and increased agricultural production losses because of extreme weather events. These impacts to agriculture will increase the risk of extreme poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition in the country, making progress in poverty reduction and human development far more challenging than it is today.

Further, climate change in Pakistan is also expected to enhance the impact of air and water pollution on human health; leading to a decline in labor productivity due to extreme heat.⁴ In 2024, Pakistan has faced devastating floods and extreme heat, hindering its recovery from existing climate crisis-related disasters.